Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
